17 Jan

Maldives

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Content

• Some facts useful for Prelims (Maldives Geography)
• Political Developments in Maldives
• Democratic Transition: Defeat of Yameen and Ibrahim Mohammed Solih  became the President
• 2023 Elections
• China’s increasing influence in Maldives and India’s Concerns
• India- Maldives Relations
• Why Maldives is Significant for India
• Way Forward: Change in Political Situation in Maldives

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Some facts useful for Prelims (Maldives Geography)

• Officially the Republic of Maldives, is a sovereign island country and archipelago in Indian Ocean. It is located southwest of India and Sri Lanka in the Laccadive Sea.
• The capital and largest city is Male, traditionally called the “King’s Island”.
• It is the Smallest Asian country both in terms of land area and population (around 4,00,000). It has recently transitioned from Least Developed Country to Middle income group.
• The island is located atop the Chagos-Maldives-Laccadive Ridge, a vast submarine mountain range in the Indian Ocean.
• It is planet’s lowest country, with an average height 1.5 meters above sea level. Also, the country has the lowest natural high point in the world, at 2.4 meters.
• 8-degree channel separates India (Lakshadweep) and Maldives.
• Note: Maldives is located both in the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere i.e., Equator passes through it.
• Independence: In 1965 from British Empire.
• Multilateral Body Membership
  • SAARC founding member.
  • Commonwealth of Nations (left in 2016)
  • The Organization of Islamic Cooperation

Political Developments in Maldives

• Key Political Parties and leadership
  • Progressive Party of Maldives – PPM – main leaders include Abdulla Yameen, Mohammed Muizzu etc.
  • Maldivian Democratic Party – MDP – Mohammed Nasheed’s (now formed a new Party the Democrats) and Mohammed Solih’s.
• Background
  • Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (half-brother of Abdulla Yameen Gayoom of Progressive Party of Maldives) ruled as an autocratic President from 1978 to 2008.
  • In 2008, Maldives became a multiparty democracy and Mohammed Nasheed (Of Maldivian Democratic Party), became the first directly elected President.
• 2011-12 Crisis
  • Mohammed Nasheed (the first democratically elected President), under a brief multiparty democratic system, was President till 2012 when he was controversially ousted.
  • Nasheed, later, lost the presidential election in 2013 paving way for Abdulla Yameen Gayoom to become President.
    • Anti-democratic measures under Abdullah Yameen:
      • Maldives lost much of the democratic gain; stifling of dissent, imprisonment of opposition, control over institutions like judiciary and police were some common affairs.
      • In 2015, Mohammed Nasheed was jailed for 13 years after being found guilty of terrorism charges.
      • Maldives even announced its leaving of Commonwealth in 2016. This was because the commonwealth had earlier warned Maldives that it risked suspension if it didn’t show progress on democracy.
  • Abdullah Yameen has been the most-Pro China president so far.
    • Yameen agave opportunities to China to increase its influence in Maldives.
    • One primary reason for it was that Yameen perceived that Nasheed was helped a lot by India.
  • Feb 2018 Crisis: the 45 days emergency
    • President Yameen declared emergency and ordered arrest of 2 senior judges who had ordered release and re-instate of 12 lawmakers who were arrested in politically motivated cases.
    • This move was criticized globally as another attempt to suppress any kind of dissent and killing democratic institutions.

Sep 2018 Democratic Transition: Defeat of Yameen and Ibrahim Mohammed Solih  became the President

Ibrahim Mohammed Solih was a joint candidate of Maldivian Democratic Party, The Jumhooree Party and the Adhaalath Party.

Impact:

• A moment of joy for democracy lovers
  • Political prisoners were released.
• Solih made rebuilding strong relations with India a priority.
  • Both countries have tried to align their respective policies of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), India’s “Neighborhood First” approach and Maldives’ “India First” approach.
  • During PM Modi’s 2019 Maldives visit, Solih reiterated his government’s “India First” approach and “pledged his government’s full support towards deepening the multifaceted, mutually beneficial partnership between India and Maldives, which has traditionally been characterized by trust, transparency, mutual understanding and sensitivity.
  • India has also been involved in Infrastructure and Connectivity Project including the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP).
  • India also provided assistance during COVID-19 crisis and helped Maldives during the campaign to move Maldives foreign minister Abdullah Shahid elected President of UNGA.

2023 Elections:

• Mohamed Muizzu was elected President of Maldives as he defeated the incumbent, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. (Oct 2023)
  • He was the joint candidate of the opposition coalition (People’s National Congress – Progressive Party of Maldives).
  • What were the key reasons for defeat of Ibrahim Mohammed Solih:
    • Heavy anti-incumbency sentiment
    • Concerns over the post-Covid-19 economy that is dependent on tourism.
    • The rift within Solih’s Party, the MDP, due to a rupture in his old friendship with former President Mohammed Nasheed.
      • With Mr Nasheed, a communicator par excellence gone, the MDP could
        not effectively counter the disinformation campaign launched by the opposition alliance, which inserted, unnecessarily, the issue of geopolitics in a domestic campaign.
    • Concerns over Sovereignty issues, whipped up by Mr. Muizzu’s PPM that is behind an “India Out” campaign to oust Indian military personnel.
  • Impact:
    • The latest Presidential election in Maldives showed that democracy is thriving. The holding of yet another free and fair election enhance the country’s international Prestige.
    • People’s National Congress and Progressive Party of Maldives are known for their pro-China stance.
      • For e.g., after his election, Muizzu has said that he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian military personnel stationed in archipelago state.
      • Therefore, it is assumed that Maldives will soon have a pro-China shift in its foreign policy.
    • At the request of President-elect Muizzu, President Solih agreed to shift former President Yameen from Prison to house arrest. Mr. Yameen is serving long sentence for corruption. He is seen as Mr. Muizzu’s mentor.
  • Key challenges ahead for Mohamed Muizzu:
    • How to balance between India and China
    • Dealing with challenges of mounting debt, dwindling foreign reserves, and heightening climate risks.

China’s increasing influence in Maldives and India’s Concerns

• Maldives was not always a priority for China’s Foreign Policy; Till 2011, Beijing didn’t even have an embassy in Male.
• However, since Sep 2014, Xi Jingping’s visit, Maldives had increasingly moved into Chinese Orbit especially under Abdulla Yameen’s presidency (2013-18).

Why is China Vying for expanding its influence in Maldives?

1. Maldives’ strategic location in the Indian Ocean

• Maldives is located between India and Diego Garcia – making it a preferred destination
  for operating a military base and maritime surveillance.

2. Presence of several International Sea lines of communications (SLOCs) is an additional
imperative.

During President Abdullah Yameen Gayoom Yameen’s Presidency (2013 – 2018), the increasing influence of China was manifested in the following steps:

1. Maldives entering into an FTA with China: This was the first FTA of Maldives with any country.
2. Maldives also signed an MoU to join Maritime Silk Road (a component of China’s ambitious BRI).
3. Maldives under Yameen had also eagerly embraced Chinese Investment and loans for
infrastructure development.
4. A constitutional amendment allowing foreign ownership of freehold land was passed in 2015.
This is allowed provided minimum investment is $1 billion and 70% of the land is reclaimed
region. This also gave China the opportunity to enhance its military presence on the island
nation. China’s Naval ships frequently visited Male.

This had made India worried:

• Increased Chinese presence in India’s neighborhood had negative implications for India’s
  security.
• India is also apprehensive of Maldives falling in China’s debt trap as it will make Maldives
  vulnerable to China’s demands and pressures. This could already be seen in the form of 2015
  Constitutional Amendment and increased Chinese Naval Presence in Maldives.

After election of Muizzu as President in 2023, these worries have re-emerged for India.

India- Maldives Relations

Background

• Relations between India and Maldives go back several centuries. This relation further grew in decades following Maldives independence from Britain in 1965 and strengthened in 1980s and 1990s with India readily available to help Maldives on all fronts.
• India has played a critical role in building Maldives’ economy and ensuring political stability then. Delhi supported authoritarian rule of Abdul Gayoom and enabled him to remain in power for three decades. Delhi also helped Maldives to avert a coup attempt to oust Gayoom in 1988 and protect its territorial integrity (Operation Cactus, 1988).
• India’s relations with Maldives continued to grow even under the first democratically elected
  President Mohammed Nasheed.
• In 2014, when there was a drinking water shortage in Maldives due to disfunction of the only desalination plant there, Indian Navy had rushed the drinking water to Male.
• Both the countries share strong geographical, cultural and religious bonds.
• Maldives has also been an important component in India’s Maritime strategy.

But during Yameen’s Presidency (2013-2018) ties between Delhi and Male had nose dived.

• The political situation forced PM Modi to cancel his 2015 visit to Male.
• Maldives annulled the $500 million contract of GMR Group to develop a modern international airport near Male and gave it to a Chinese company.
• Relations reached at its lowest point after the Feb 2018 Emergency imposition by Yameen government to curb all kinds of dissent including from judiciary.
• India’s influence reduced in Maldives:
  • Changing Political dynamics of Maldives
    • India was perceived as close to Mohammed Nasheed and thus Abdul Yameen
      moved away from India.
  • Increasing Chinese Influence in the region
    • Debts, Infra Projects, FTA etc.
  • Reducing dependence on India: With its booming tourism sectors, Maldives now is less and less dependent on assistants from India.
  • Increasing role of Pak and Saudi Arabia and growing radicalisation
    • Maldives is a moderate Islamic Country. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has opened many Madarsas to spread Wahabism.
    • Scholarships are being provided for studying in Pak.
    • Religious fundamentalism played an important role in ouster of Nasheed who had a secular ideology and had allowed Israeli tourists to visit Maldives and establishment of Buddha’s statue in Male.
• But things started changing in 2018 when Solih came to power: India’s influence increased:
  • Already discussed in the impact section of Political development.

Why Maldives is Significant for India

i. Strategic Location

• It is located around 700 km from India’s Lakshadweep island chain and around 12,00 km from the Indian mainland.
• Its proximity to international sea lane through which 2/3rd of the World’s oil and half of its container shipment pass also makes Maldives very important for Geo-political reasons.

ii. Countering China’s String of Pearls strategy

• Increased Chinese presence in Maldives will negatively impact India’s strategic interest. To counter China’s String of Pearl strategy we have to have good relations in Maldives.

iii. Securing Sea Lanes

• Maldives can play a significant role in dealing with Piracy and building stability in the
  Indian Ocean region.

iv. Protecting Interest of Indian Diaspora

• More than 20,000 Indians live in Maldives. They form the second largest expatriate community there.

v. Preventing further radicalization of youth in Maldives.
vi. Enhancing the traditional strong relations

Way Forward: Change in Political Situation in Maldives:

• India must engage with new government in Maldives and deepen ties. India’s cooperation with Maldives is based on jointly addressing shared challenges and priorities. The assistance and platforms that India’s has provided have contributed to areas like people’s welfare,
  humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and combating illegal maritime activities like Piracy, smuggling etc.
  • Other Steps that can be taken are:
    • Strengthen Colombo Security Conclave:
      • Colombo Security Conclave comprise of India, Sri Lanka, Maldives,
        Mauritius, Bangladesh and Seychelles. It should be strengthened showing
        tangible outcomes in maritime security and the development of the Blue
        Economy.
    • Invite Maldives as observer in BIMSTEC Grouping:
      • This will be a bold-reimagination of post SAARC south Asia.
    • Perennial need of additional Resources to be invested in Maldives.
      • This will provide India’s strategic community and media organizations take more interest in the small but vital neighbor, building bridges of mutual understanding and trust.
• New Delhi must avoid the impression that it has favorites within the Maldivian Polity. It should be perceived as working for the people of Maldives. This will ensure that no matter which party comes to power in future, India’s influence in Maldives wouldn’t wane.
• India is significant for Maldives and the entire political spectrum (including Progressive
  Alliance) understand this.
• Despite political posturing by the Progressive Alliance – there is an hard realization in
  the Maldives that India is the biggest security partner in the region and makes up for
  Male’s scarce maritime capacity and capabilities.
  • It is no coincidence that even Yameen continued defence cooperation with India
    during the roughest phase of bilateral relations.
• India is also Maldives’ biggest trade partner, a top export destination and a traditional
  donor.

World has changed since Mr. Yameen’s time and China and Pakistan may not be able to have
so much influence now.

• The BRI which Maldives had accepted, is in serious trouble.
• Sri Lankan Financial Crisis showed the impact of China’s debt trap and how India’s steady help to Sri Lanka was beneficial.
• Islamist constituency in Maldives which is not very friendly with India will also notice the changed equation between India and the gulf states. It is reflected in the waning influence of West Asia in a bankrupt Pakistan, which has long nurtured extremism in Maldives.
• But India still needs to keep an eye on China’s expanding influence in Maldives especially after Muizzu coming to power.

Conclusion1:

• One is likely to see a continuation of the China-India political competition in Maldives, as it has been in the rest of the Indian neighborhood. The election of Muizzu as President may give China some advantage, but Male surely recognizes that it is also not in Maldives’ interest to put all its eggs in Beijing’s basket.

Conclusion2:

India too is likely to show pragmatism and flexibility with the administration as long as the
incoming Maldivian government respects India’s sensitivities and security concern.