24 May

Reports About Climate Change

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Content

• Reports by UNEP
• Reports by Global Carbon Project
• Other Reports
• Other Miscellaneous Topics
• Impact of Global Warming
• UNFCCC – Paris Agreement to COP27
  • UNFCCC
  • The Continuing UNFCCC Negotiation
  • Net Zero
  • India’s Decision to achieve net zero by 2070: Critical Analysis
  • Mechanisms and Issues with Climate Funding

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A) REPORT BY WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO)

• About WMO
  • WMO is a specialized body of UN which is an authoritative voice on behaviour of earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.
  • Headquarter: Geneva
  • It originated from the International Meteorological Organization, which was founded in 1873. It was established in 1950, and became the specialized agency of UN in 1951 for Meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.

B) STATE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE REPORT, 2023

• Provisional data shows that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record. Data until the end of Oct 2023 shows that the year was about 1.4 degree C (with a margin of uncertainty of +-0.12 degree C) above the pre-industrial levels.

C) GREENHOUSE GAS BULLETIN, 2023 BY WMO

• The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year (i.e. in 2022) and there is no end in sight to the rising trend, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

D) GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM (GOOS) REPORT CARD, 2022

• It was prepared in collaboration with WMO, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO) and other GOOS partners and experts, and produced by its operational centre OceanOP.

E) OTHER REPORTS BY WMO

• State of Climate in Asia, 2021
• State of Climate Service Report

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1) REPORTS BY UNEP

F) THE EMISSION GAP REPORT, 2023

• About the Report
  • The report provides the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future Green House Gases (GHG) emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of Paris agreement. The difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the “emission gap“.
• Key Highlights of the 2023 Report:
  • There has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
  • GHG emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16 per cent at the time of the agreement’s adoption.
  • Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent.
  • However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway.

G) THE ADAPTATION GAP REPORT

• Introduction:
  • The report by UNEP looks at the progress in planning for, financing and implementing adaptation – with a focus on nature-based adaptation.
  • Adaptation action is critical to enable both public and private sectors to prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change.
• Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared – Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed
  • The report finds that progress on climate adaptation is slowing when it should be accelerating to catch up with these rising climate change impacts.

H) OTHER REPORTS BY UNEP

• Global Environment outlook report

2)  REPORTS BY GLOBAL CARBON PROJECT

• Global Carbon Budget 2022 Report
• Global Methane Budget (GMB)
• Global Nitrous (N2O) Budget

I) ABOUT GLOBAL CARBON PROJECT (GCP)

• GCP is a global research project of Future Earth and a research partner of the World Climate Research Program.
• It was formed to work with international science community to establish a common and mutually agreed knowledge base to help fight climate change.
• It was established in 2001 by a shared partnership between the International Geo-Sphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), the International Human Dimension Program on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and Diversitas. This partnership constituted the Earth Systems Science Partnership which subsequently evolved into future Earth.
• Goals
• Develop complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both in biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them.

3) OTHER REPORTS

J) CLIMATE CHANGE PERFORMANCE INDEX (CCPI)

• Published since 2005, CCPI is an independent monitoring tool of countries’ climate protection performance. It aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables the comparability of climate protection efforts and progress made by individual countries.
• The CCPI assesses each country’s performance in four categories:
  • GHG emissions (40% of the overall ranking)
  • Renewable Energy (20%)
  • Energy Use (20%)
  • Climate Policy (20%)
• 59 countries (which together are responsible for 92% of the global emissions) are assessed under the ranking.
• The report is jointly presented by: GermanWatch, NewClimate Institute and Climate Action Network (CAN).

K) GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX – BY GERMANWATCH

L) OTHER REPORTS

• Climate and Development: An Agenda for Action: By the World Bank
• NDC Synthesis Report, 2022: UNFCCC
  • It is the annual summary of climate commitments made by countries and their impact on GHG emissions.
• Investing in Carbon Neutrality: Utopia or the new green wave
• State of Climate Action Report 2022 – By Climate action tracker (an independent analytic group comprising Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute), the United Nations High Level Climate Change Champions, World Resource Institute and Others
• The World Heritage Glaciers Report – Jointly released by UNESCO and IUCN
  • 1/3rd of the World Heritage Glaciers will disappear by 2050.
  • Note: So far, around 50 UNESCO Heritage sites have glaciers in them.

2. OTHER MISCELLANEOUS TOPICS

A) WET BULB TEMPERATURE

• What is wet bulb temperature?
  • Wet bulb temperature is the lowest temperature to which air can be cooled by the evaporation of water into the air at a constant pressure.
    • It is therefore measured by wrapping a wet wick around the bulb of a thermometer and the measured temperature corresponds to the wet bulb temperature.
    • In simpler terms, wet bulb temperature is the lowest temperatures that our bodies can reach when we are in hotter environments, by sweating. It tells us at what level our bodies will not be able to cool themselves down by sweating. In this case the threat of heat stroke rises dramatically.
  • The dry bulb temperature is the ambient temperature.
  • The difference between the two temperatures (dry bulb and wet bulb) is a measure of humidity of the air. The higher the difference in these temperatures, lower the humidity of the air.
• Why is wet bulb temperature important?
  • Dry temperature, or the temperature that we see in daily weather forecast – doesn’t tell us the full Wet bulb temperature, especially in times of heat waves, tells us how habitable a place is for human body.
  • A wet bulb temperature of 32 degree C is the maximum that a human can endure and carryout normal outdoor activities. This is equivalent to dry temperature of 55-degree C. The theoretical maximum wet bulb temperature is 35 degree C – most humans, even with unlimited water supply, are likely to suffer heat strokes at this level, likely leading to death.
• Climate Change and Wet Bulb temperature:
  • IPCC study shows that with climate change, the wet bulb temperature in India is going up.
    • If emissions continue to increase Lucknow and Patna would be the cities which would reach wet bulb temperature of 35 degree C. Parts of Central India, including Vidarbha are at risk of exceeding wet bulb temperature of 32-34 degree C

3. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING

GWG emissions is breaching all the records: As per the AR6, Emissions of Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide breached records in 2020. CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere – at around 419 parts per million – are the highest they have been in 2 million years.

• Three factors make carbon budgeting complex:
  1. The pollutants – primarily GHGs like CO2 and methane – have an extraordinary long life. Thus, historic emissions continue to warm up the planet just like current emissions.
  2. GHG emissions are linked to economic growth.
  3. Sharing of burden becomes difficult as the emissions are associated with economic growth.

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1. Rising Temperatures

• As per the AR6 of IPCC, the global temperature has already risen by 1.1 degree C since preindustrial 19th century. This could increase upto 1.5 degree Celsius in less than 20 years (before 2040).
  • Further, the 2 degree C warming is likely to get exceeded by the end of this century unless immediate and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are initiated immediately.
  • In business-as-usual approach, or in worst case scenario, the temperature rise by the end of this century would exceed even 4 degree Celsius’
  • The report is also ‘unequivocal‘ (i.e. there is almost no doubt) that most of the observed warming of the planet since the late 1800s is caused by human activities.
• As per the WMO, the decade 2010-20 and the five years (2015-20) were the hottest in the earth’s history

2. Melting of Glaciers and Sea Level Rise -> Submergence of coastal region

• AR6: Sea level rise has tripled compared with 1901-1971. The Antarctic sea ice is the lowest in last 1,00 years.
• The temperature of Antarctica rose above 20 degree Celsius for the first time on record.

3. Heating up of Oceans -> marine heat waves, intense cyclones etc.

4. Increasing variability in weather patterns

• Heat waves and floods which used to be once-in-a century event are becoming more regular occurrence.
• Weather Disasters have displaced millions of people this year and affected rainfall patterns from India to northern Russia and the Central United states.
• For instance: India saw 13 Deficit Monsoons in 18 years between 2001-18.

5. Compounding extremes (several climate change drivers operating together) are maximizing disaster in India and elsewhere.

• E.g., heavy rainfall, landslides, snow avalanches, and flooding occurring together is an example of compounding event.

6. Thawing of Permafrost and Arctic Lakes Bubbling Methane

• Reasons: Permafrost Thawing producing methane gas
  • Organic matter in Artic generally remain frozen. But, with climate change thawing is taking This thawing is leading to organic matter decaying into carbon di oxide and methane which is leading to methane getting emitted in atmosphere.
• Warmer temperature increases the thawing of permafrost and release methane to the atmosphere
  • But this also means that growing season increases, more plant growth takes place and thus more CO2 getting But overall, the increase in release of GHGs would be much higher.
• Presently Arctic is a net carbon sink
  • But soon arctic could become a carbon source, if the earth continues to warm, and a lot of permafrost thaws out. This would start a cycle of releasing more carbon from permafrost thawing and less absorption where the extra carbon in the atmosphere results in increasing warming.

7. Sea Water is 26% more acidic than at the start of the industrial era. This is leading to degradation of marine ecosystem.

8. Biodiversity Loss

• At least 1 million species were at risk because of the rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and global warming.
  • For instance, a recent study shows that seal pups (IUCN: LC) are finding it tough to survive in the Baltics in the absence of ice. 100s of grey seal pups are dying on the shores of the Baltic Sea in Estonia and Latvia as the Nordic coastline faced winter without ice in decades.

9. Negative Impact on Food Security, Agriculture and Economy

• Variability in rainfall
• Increased temperature and evaporation of water sources
• Increased chances of Locust attacks
• Extreme weather events triggered by climate change costs India $87 billion annually : State of Climate in Asia, 2020 (report by WMO)

10. Climate Change has adversely affected both physical and mental health of people.

• Impacts on health is mediated by both through natural and human systems, including economic and social conditions and disruptions.
• Extreme heat events -> Mortality and morbidity
• Climate related food borne and water borne diseases has increased. The incidence of vector borne diseases have also increased due to range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors.
• Some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures, trauma from weather and climate extreme events, and loss of livelihood and culture. Exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated with climate sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress.

11. Achievements of SDG targets have been negatively hindered.

12. Shrinking of Stratosphere:

According to a study published by NASA, the earth’s energy imbalance doubled over the 14 year period between 2005 – 2019, doubling the pace at which the Earth retains heat from 2005. As a result of this we are already on the brink of losing stratosphere

4. UNFCCC – PARIS AGREEMENT TO COP27

 1) UNFCCC

• It is one of the three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit (UN summit Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)) in 1992. Its sister Rio Conventions are the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification.
• This was the first multilateral legal instrument on climate change and came into force in 1994 after a sufficient number of countries had ratified it.
• Ultimate Aim of UNFCC
  • Prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration in atmosphere.
• It sets on non-binding limits on greenhouse gas emission for individual countries and contain no enforcement mechanism.
• Parties to Convention
  • 197 parties
    • All UN member states, Palestine (observer state), Niue and Cook Island (non-member states) and the European Union.
  • Annex 1 Parties -> Industrialized OECD countries, Economies in Transition (EIT), EU
  • Annex 2 Parties -> OECD members of Annex-1, NO EIT.
    • Provide financial and technical support to EITs and developing countries for mitigating Climate
  • Non-Annex 1 Parties -> Mostly developing
  • Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Key Significance of UNFCCC – 1) Recognition of the problem 2) Setting target of stabilizing GHGs 3) Onus on Developed countries 4) Funds and technology transfer to developing countries 5) Regular Reporting -> Keep a tap on the problem.

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A) KYOTO PROTOCOL

• It was an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It was negotiated under the UNFCCC during a meeting held in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 and came into force in 2005 (due to complex ratification process)
  • The first commitment period was 2008-2012
  • The second commitment period beginning 1 Jan 2013 to 2020.
    • Launched by Doha Amendment (2012)
• The objectives of KP included reducing greenhouse gas emissions through enforcement of compliance; promote sustainable development through tech-transfer and investment; and encourage developing countries and private sector to contribute to emission reduction.
• Parties to Kyoto Protocol
  • Annex B: Nearly identical to Annex – I of the UNFCCC; Agreed for emission reduction.
  • Non-Annex B Parties: Countries which are not listed in Annex B of KP.
• Key Features
  • The protocol ‘operationalized’ the UNFCCC. It commits industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of the Convention.
  • Binding Emission targets for 38 industrialized countries and the European Community (Annex 1 Parties) in its first commitment period.
    • Only bound developed countries – Common but Differentiated Responsibility
• Flexible Architecture of KP Regime to meet target
  • National Measures and Market Based Mechanisms
    • This market based mechanism allows GHG abatement to start where it is most cost- effective – for e.g. in the developing world.
  • 3 Components – Carbon Trading, Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation
• Penalties for not meeting the targets
• What is the status of the Kyoto Protocol?
  • The Protocol was ratified by 191 countries and EU. Canada withdrew from the Protocol in 2012.
  • The US was the only country that signed the protocol and never ratified it.
    • Internal country politics.
  • Were targets met?
    • Most countries didn’t meet the targets for emission reduction assigned for the first period of commitment (2008-2012).
    • So protocols impact was very small.
• Kyoto Beyond 2012
  • At Doha in 2012, the amendments to Kyoto Protocol for the 2nd commitment period (the Doha Amendment) were successfully adopted for the period 2012-2020.
    • It entered into force on 31st Dec, following an acceptance by the mandated minimum of at least 144 states, although the second commitment period ended on the same day.
    • It entered into force in 2020 as the required number of countries didn’t deposit their instrument of accession earlier.
    • But some developed countries started implementing their commitments under the ‘opt- in‘ provisions of the Doha Round.
• Note: India ratified the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol in Jan 2017

B) PARIS AGREEMENT

• The Paris Agreement and the accompanying COP decisions are focused on enhancing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change beyond 2020.

a. Long Term Goal:

• • • Reaffirm the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2 degree Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.
    • Two long term emission goals
      • Peaking of emissions as soon as possible (with a recognition that it will take longer for developing countries)
      • A goal of Net Green House Gas Neutrality (expressed as “a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks”) in the second half of this century.

b. Ends the Strict Differentiation between developed and developing countries: Provides for a framework that commits all countries to put forward their best efforts against climate change and keep strengthening these efforts.

c. Mitigation – Binding Procedural Commitments -> Preparing, communicating and maintaining NDC; Communicate new progressive NDC every five years;

• • • The agreement commits parties to “pursue domestic measures with the aim of achieving the objectives” of its NDC.
    • Doesn’t make implementation or achievement of NDCs a binding obligation.

 d. Carbon Markets – the agreement recognized that the parties may use internationally transferred mitigation outcomes to implement its NDCs.

e. STOCKTAKE/SUCCESSIVE NDCs

• • • To ensure successive improvement in efforts, the agreement provides for two linked processes, each on a five-year cycle.
      • Global Stocktake to assess collective progress towards the agreement’s goals. The first global stocktake took place in 2023.
      • New NDCs every five years informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake. Signatories should ensure that the new NDCs are more ambitious than the previous ones.

g. Finance

• • • Provisions for Support to poor developing countries by Developed
    • Finance Mobilization
      • The COP decided to extend the $100 billion-a-year goal through 2025, and beyond that, by 2025 COP will set a “new collective quantified goal from a floor of “$100 billion a year”.

h. Adaptation

A major priority for many developing countries was strengthening adaptation efforts under the UNFCCC. The agreement does that by:

• • • • Establishing a global goal of “enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change“
      • Committing enhanced adaptation support for developing countries
      • Including a review of adaptation progress, and of the adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation support, in the global stocktake to be undertaken every five years.

i. Loss and Damage

• • • In a victory to small island countries and other countries highly vulnerable to climate impacts, the agreement includes a free-standing provisions extending the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage
      • The mechanism, established at COP-19 is charged with developing approaches to help vulnerable countries cope with unavoidable impacts, including extreme weather events such as sea-level ris
      • Potential approaches include early warning systems and Risk insurance.
    • Loss and Damage provision “did not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation.

c) WHEN DID PARIS AGREEMENT ENTER INTO FORCE?

• It required approval of atleast 55 countries accounting for atleast 55 percent of greenhouse gas emission.
• It came into force on Nov 4, 2016 (a month after required number of ratification)

D) INDIA’S UPDATED FIRST NDC UNDER PARIS AGREEMENT (AUG 2022)

• India submitted its INDC on 2nd Oct
• The NDC submitted in Aug 2022 is India’s first NDC under the Paris Agreement. The Article 4, paragraph 9 of the Paris Agreement provides that each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years in accordance with the decision of COP21.
• So, in Aug 2022, India communicated an update to its first NDC submitted earlier on Oct 2, 2015 for the period upto 2030, as under:
  • To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as a key to combating climate change [ UPDATED].
  • To adopt a climate friendly and a cleaner path than the one followed hitherto by others at corresponding level of economic development.
  • To reduce Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030, from 2005 level [UPDATED].
  • To achieve about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel- based energy resources by 2030, with the help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF) [UPDATED].
  • To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
  • To better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate change, particularly agriculture, water resources, Himalayan region, coastal regions, health and disaster management.
  • To mobilize domestic and new & additional funds from developed countries to implement the above mitigation and adaptation actions in view of the resource required and the resource
  • To build capacities, create domestic framework and international architecture for quick diffusion of cutting edge climate technology in India and for joint collaborative R&D for such future technologies.

This update to India’s existing NDC is a step towards our long term goal of reaching net-zero by 2070.

E) INDIA’S LONG TERM LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (LT-LED STRATEGY) (NOV 2022)

• Details
  • LT-LED is a requirement emanating from the 2015 Paris Agreement whereby countries must explain how they will transition their economies beyond achieving near-term NDC targets, and work towards the larger climate objective of cutting emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net zero around This is what scientists say, offers the best chance of keeping temperature rise below 1.5 degree C. So far, no country is on track towards such a pathway.
• Very few countries (including India) have submitted their Long-Term Strategy. So far.
• Highlight of India’s Long-Term Strategy:
  1. Nuclear Power Capacity – It will be increased at least 3-fold in the next decade.
  2. India will focus on increasing the proportion of ethanol in petrol – with ethanol blending to reach 20% by 2025 and a strong shift to public transport for passenger and freight traffic.
  3. India would also become an international hub of producing green hydrogen.
  4. India will also focus on energy efficiency by the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme; increasing electrification; enhancing material efficiency; and recycling and ways to reduce
  5. The country is also on track to achieve the NDC commitment of 5 to 3 billion tonnes of additional carbon sequestration in forest and tree cover by 2030.
  6. The emphasis is on ensuring energy security, energy access and employment, while keeping focus on our vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

2) THE CONTINUING UNFCCC NEGOTIATIO

• The Continuing UNFCC Negotiations:
  • After the COP-21 – Paris Agreement, the negotiations have continued. COP-22 (Marrakech Summit, 2016), COP-23 (Bonn Summit, 2017), COP-24 (Katowice Summit, 2018), COP-25 (Madrid Summit, 2019), COP-26 (Glasgow, 2021);

A) COP 26 (GLASGOW PACT) – KEY OUTCOMES: 2021

• Mitigation:
  • It asked countries to strengthen their 2030 climate action plan or NDCs by 2022.
  • First clear recognition of the need to move away from fossil fuels -> it called for “phase down of coal” and “phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”.
• Adaptation:
  • Asked developed countries to atleast double the money being provided for adaption by 2025 from the 2019 levels.
  • It created a two year work program to define a goal on adaptation.
• Paris Rule Book has been finalized.
  • ‘Transparency Framework’ was completed – it included reporting rules and formats for emissions, progress on pledges and financial contributions.
  • Carbon Market provisions have been finalized [a major achievement of COP26].
    • Credit generated from earlier periods, including through Clean Development Mechanism were transferred to the Paris Agreement but only since 2013. This will allow developing countries to meet its first NDC targets.
    • On the issue of double counting, it has been decided that a country that generates a credit will decide whether to authorize it for sale to other nations or to count towards their climate targets. The emission cuts will be counted only once.
• Various Positive “Parallel Outcomes” (not part of the official COP26 negotiations)
  • India’s announcement of a Panchamitra
  • Plurilateral Agreement on Methane Reduction among 100 countries is crucial. (Note: India is not a member)
  • Plurilateral Agreement to reverse deforestation among another group of 100 countries. (Note: India didn’t join the group due to concerns over a clause on possible trade measures related to forest products).
  • COP26 Transport Declaration -> 100% transition to emission less (electric vehicles) cars by 2040.
    • This has also been signed by over 30 countries.
  • Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (Gfanz): 450 of the world’s banks and other financial institutions have pledged to report annually on the carbon emissions linked to the projects they lend to.
    • They also plan to lend trillions of dollars in green finance – while committing to net zero emission across the board by 2050.
• Problems that remained:
  • Funding
  • L&D
  • Didn’t specifically raise emission reduction targets.

C) COP-27 (SHARM EL SHEIKH, EGYPT)

• Quotes:
  • The UN Secretary General had declared at the start of the conference, “We are on a highway to climate hell with foot still on the accelerator”.
• Key Highlights:
  • Nod for establishment of Loss and Damage Fund.
  • Estimates of Financial Requirements -> COP27 agreement for the first time, quantified the financial needs for climate action. It said about US$ 4 trillion had to be invested in the renewable energy sector every year till 2030 if the 2050 target of net zero was to be achieved.

D) COP28: DUBAI, UAE (30^TH NOV 2023 – 12^TH DEC 2023)

• The meeting reviewed the Progress of commitment made by 197 countries under the Paris Agreement to mitigate the razing global warming.
• Outcome: Dubai Consensus:
  • Negotiators adopt resolution titled “Dubai Consensus“; the text reflects a compromise between developed and developing countries on emissions.
• Highlights of Global Stocktake (GST):
  • The GST text echoed the GST input findings that 1.5 degree target would require “deep, rapid and sustained” reduction in global emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 from the 2019 levels and eventually reaching net zero by 2050.
  • Fossil Fuel Phase-out:
    • Fossil fuels was the most hotly contested issued of the COP28; It was first time that fossil fuel was at the centre of discussion at UNFCCC COP.
    • Outcome:
      • COP28 agreement has called upon countries to contribute towards “transitioning away” from fossil fuels and phase down of unabated coal power so as to achieve net zero by 2050.
    • Criticisms:
      • No timelines
      • Not using the phrase “fossil fuel phase-out” and instead the use of “transitioning away”.
      • While calling for phase down of “unabated coal power, the door was left open for “low-carbon fuels”, “low emission” technologies, “low-carbon hydrogen” – all terms with very loose definitions.
  • Tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 (from 3400 GW today to 11000 GW) and doubling of global average rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
    • COP28 calls the member countries to achieve these two targets which have the potential to avoid emissions of about 7 billion tonnes of carbondioxide equivalent between now and 2030.
    • Tripling is a global target for renewables is not incumbent on every country It is not thus clear how this tripling will be achieved.
    • This is the only outcome that contribute to additional emission reduction between now and 2030.
  • Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
    • Criticisms: No target mentioned
    • Note: A group of about 100 countries at Glasgow (in 2021) had made a voluntary commitment to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
  • Reduction of emission from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero-and low-emission vehicles;
  • Phase down of inefficient fuel subsidies that don’t address energy poverty or just transition, as soon as possible.
  • Operationalization of L&D Fund:
    • Background: A decision to set up a Loss and Damage Fund had been taken last year in Sharm el-Shaikh (COP27) but it had not been created, and no money had been promised.
    • COP28 operationalized the fund and several countries have already made commitments worth around $800 million by the end of the conference.
      • COP28 decided that the fund will be serviced by new, dedicated and independent secretariat. It will be supervised and governed by the Board.
      • The fund is accountable to and functions under the guidance of the CoP serving as the meeting of the Parties to Paris Agreement (CMA).
    • This is the most significant outcome for vulnerable countries as L&D fund is meant to provide financial help to countries trying to recover from climate-induced disasters.
    • Santiago network has also decided to avert, minimize, and address loss and damage to catalyze the technical assistance of relevant organizations, bodies, networks and experts for the implementation of relevant approaches associated with climate change impacts.
    • Santiago Network: At COP25, the parties to UNFCCC decided to set up a Santiago network as part of Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damages. It is aimed to organize the technical assistance of relevant organizations for the implementation of relevant approaches in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change.
  • Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):
    • Background: COP26 at Glasgow had decided to set up a two-year work program to define the contours of adaptation framework.
      • Adaptation hasn’t received enough attention and the entire focus of various agreements have been on mitigation. But, developing countries have been arguing for a global framework for adaptation.
      • The two year work program resulted in identification of some common adaptation goals like reduction in climate-induced water scarcity, attaining climate-resilience in food and agricultural production, supplies and distribution and resilience against climate induced health impacts.
    • The COP28 retains calls for a doubling in adaptation finance and plans for assessment and monitoring of adaptation needs in the coming year.
      • An explicit 2030 date has been integrated into the text for targets on water security, ecosystem restoration, health.
  • Issue of Climate Finance Targets will be reviewed in next COP:
    • Currently, the $100 billion goal hasn’t yet been met (although it appears on track this year) and is far short of what is needed.
    • COP28 saw an agreement to draft a post 2025 finance target ahead of COP29. This is a step forward, but details will only be hammered next year.
  • COP28 Declaration on Climate Change and Health
    • This is the first ever move to commit action and finance to combat the health impact of climate change.
    • The COP28 Presidency and the WHO together issued the ‘COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health’.
      • It’s signatories aim to accelerate action to protect public health and communities from negative and growing climate impacts and strengthen healthcare systems to cope with the effects of extreme heat, air pollution, infectious and zoonotic diseases and environmental risk factors.
  • Other Related Outcomes:
    • A group of 22 countries signed a declaration to triple nuclear energy capacity between 2020 and 2050, in order to reduce dependence on oil, gas, and coal.
    • G7 countries have announced to phase out coal by 2030 and have urged G20 countries to also agree on it.
    • India and Sweden co-launched Phase II of the Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT 2.0) for the period 2024-26 at COP-28. They also launched the Industry Transition Platform, which will connect the governments, industries, technology providers, researchers, and think tanks of the two countries.
    • Green Industrialization Initiative: African leaders came together on the third day of COP28 to launch the initiative. The GII is set to accelerate green growth of industries in Africa and attract finances and investment opportunities.
  • Limitations/Criticisms:
    • Countries failed to adopt rules to set up global carbon market: Civil society has hailed the move as parties didn’t agree to adopt weak rules for carbon markets.
    • Climate Finance issue is still pending and would be taken up in COP25.
    • No timelines for fossil fuel transitioning: The text related to fossil fuel transitioning is weak, in-adequate and with loopholes.
    • NDCs remain far away from achieving Net Zero by 2050.
    • Net Zero by 2050 target is expected to bring pressure on China and India whose net zero targets are for 2060 and 2070 respectively.
    • Major Decisions have not been integrated with agendas like ‘Common but differentiated responsibilities’.

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3) NET ZERO

• Details
  • Achieving a global balance between emissions and removal of greenhouse gases to and from the atmosphere is called net zero (or no net emissions). The Paris agreement targets this to be achieved somewhere in the second half of this century, but the earlier this happens, the greater the chances of keeping global warming below 2-degree C.
  • Electricity and heat are responsible for 25% of global GHGs. The International Energy Agency envisages that in a net-zero world, almost 90% of electricity could come from renewable sources, mostly solar and wind, with nuclear power making up most of the rest.
• Achieving Net Zero:
  • Focus on 2030 goal first:
    • IPCC’s AR6 emphasized that to keep temperature rise within 1.5 degree C, global emissions should be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, on the way to net zero by 2050.
    • But the UN NDC report says that as per the current NDCs, the global emission is expected to increase by 16.3% in 2030 (compared to 2010 levels).
  • Energy Conservation and Efficiency: Global emissions show that energy is the biggest emitter (73.2%) including its use in transport, industry, and building. Therefore, energy efficiency can play a crucial role in achieving net zero.
    • Targeted consumer education and behavioral change would also be important here.
  • Renewable Energy: Gradually phasing out thermal energy (coal, petrol, gas etc.) and increase the capacity of renewables with improved grid infrastructure, smart grids, etc.
    • Insure against Renewable Droughts through other sources like Nuclear Energy.
  • Transport Sector: Accelerated transition to e-mobility and non-motorized transport is required.
  • Create Offset: Inspite of all the efforts, humans would still produce some billions of tonnes of emissions by mid-century. This will have to be balanced by removals to achieve net zero. Offset can be in the form of afforestation, increasing soil organic carbon, and advanced carbon sequestration techniques.
  • Enhancement in Funding: The Promised funding from developed to developing countries need to be delivered.
  • More R&D in advanced technology like low and zero emission technologies across all sectors. There is also a need of innovation for renewable integration, power to x-storage, and conversion and reconversion pathways. Moreover, carbon-removal technologies need to be focused upon.
  • CBDR should not be ignored: Developed countries should achieve net zero earlier and few extra decades should be available to developing countries.

4) INDIA’S DECISION TO ACHIEVE NET ZERO BY 2070: CRITICAL ANALYSIS

• At COP26, PM Modi has proposed a fivefold strategy for India to play its part in helping the world get closer to 1.5 degrees Celsius. India’s ‘Panchamrita’ promises include:
  • India will get its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
    • This is a 50 GW increase from its existing target.
  • India will meet 50% of its energy requirements till 2030 with renewable energy.
  • India will reduce its projected carbon emission by one billion tonnes by 2030.
  • India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 45% by 2030.
  • India will achieve net zero by 2070.
• India’s demand from developed countries:
  • In the spirit of climate justice, the developed countries should be providing at least $1 trillion in climate finance to assist the developing countries and those most vulnerable.
• Analysis:
  • This is a very positive move as India had resisted any net zero target in the run up to the COP26. This announcement is expected to put India on a firm path towards decarbonization.
  • This announcement also keeps in mind the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).
    • India’s net zero comes in 2070 and NDC is subject to funding from developed countries
  • India is contributing more than its share: Despite a 2070 net zero year for India, India’s cumulative emissions between 1900-2100 would be lower than the US, China or EU.
  • India continues to show international leadership – It has launched the Infrastructure for Resilient Island States – an initiative under the coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure to support vulnerable island countries. India has also launched Green Grids Initiative in partnership with UK to tap into renewable energy resources everywhere.
• Critics of shifting to a Net Zero target
  • Over-appropriation of global carbon budget by a few.
    • Countries which have higher emissions presently are taking more advantages of the environment.
    • The campaign to achieve net zero by 2050 is designed to achieve Paris goals by the “lowest cost” methods, foregoing equity and climate justice.
  • Wasn’t mandated by Paris Agreement.
  • India is anyways a small contributor – Our emissions are 4.37% of the world’s share (with 18% population).
• Critics of Sustainability of India’s Net Zero Strategy
  • India’s plan to increase dependence on hydro projects and nuclear energy will create displacement, deforestation, hazardous radiation etc.
  • Solar and Wind Energy is also focused on Mega energy parks which may cause displacements.

5) MECHANISMS AND ISSUES WITH CLIMATE FUNDING

• Introduction
  • Money has been central to many a fight at the Climate Change negotiations. UNFCCC as part of its CBDR principle requires developed countries to provide financial assistance to developing nations in their fight against the climate change.
  • Globally, there are two funding mechanisms – The Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility.
• Green Climate Fund (GCF)
  • Established at COP-16 in 2010, it is the financial mechanism for UNFCCC under article 10. It is regarded as the chief instrument for the fulfillment of developed world’s annual support of $100 billion annually till 2025.
  • COP-21 held at Paris also decided that GCF shall serve the Paris Agreement.
• Global Environment Facility (GEF)
  • Created at Rio Earth Summit in 1992 to help tackle planet’s most important environmental problems.
  • What has it done so far? / What does GEF do?
    • GEF also serves as financial mechanism for the following conventions:
      • CBD
      • UNFCCC
      • UNCCD
      • Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)
      • Minamata Convention on Mercury
      • It also supports implementation of Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer in countries with economies in transition.
•  Current Funding Situation:
  • Requirement: As per COP27 (Sharm el-Sheikh agreement), the global transition to a low-carbon economy would likely require about US$ 4-6 trillion every year till 2050. This is 5% of the global GDP.
    • The cumulative requirement of developing countries, just for implementing their climate action plans, was about US$ 6 trillion between now and 2030.
  • Availability:
    • The $100 billion amount, that the developed countries have promised is the only money in play right now. And of this only around US$50-80 billion per year is being mobilized. This indicates that the fund available in less than 10% of what is required.
• Key Problems of current climate funding are:
  • Requisite finance hasn’t been mobilized.
  • Funding bias in favour of climate change mitigation activities. This bias is there because mitigation efforts are easily visible in short run and returns from adaptation efforts will be visible after long time.
    • For g., if we adapt by moving away from coasts, the benefit of this adaptation efforts would be visible much later.
  • Developing world in itself cannot fight the climate crisis as they are still struggling for finance for their development needs.
  • A number of countries are unable to access global finance. Present rules and regulations of global financial systems, make it difficult for many countries to access international finance, particularly those with political instabilities
  • Lack of transparency is leading to problems of double counting and green washing.
• Way Forward:
  • Availability and Access are two main dimensions to the problem of climate finance.
  • Increasing Availability:
    • Developed countries need to increase their contribution.
      • But, even if this happens, this won’t be able to fulfill the requirement of around $6 trillion needed annually.
    • Mobilize resources from private sector: Businesses and Corporations need to invest money into green projects.
      • In climate finance thus far, private investment have lagged behind public money. Barely 30% of current financial flows are coming from private sources.
    • Creation of right environment for investments in green project -> Private sector will not invest unless they are reasonably sure of healthy returns.
      • Here, international financial institutions should engage with governments, central banks, commercial banks etc. to incentivize climate friendly investments and discouraging, or even penalizing, dirty investments.
    • Carbon Tax – Common citizens will have to contribute to the bulk of the additional financial resources.
  • Increasing Access: There is a need to simply lending mechanisms and overhaul credit rating systems.
  • Increased Transparency:
    • Climate finance flows through a maze of channel – bilateral, regional, It is in the form of grants, concessionary loans, debt, equity, carbon credit, and more. As a result, there are widely different opinion on the quantum of climate finance currently being mobilized. This needs to be addressed.